دسته: تغییر اقلیم

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An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security

چکیده:

There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. Because changes have been gradual so far, and are projected to be similarly gradual in the future, the effects of global warming have the potential to be manageable for most nations. Recent research, however, suggests that there is a possibility that this gradual global warming could lead to a relatively abrupt slowing of the ocean’s thermohaline conveyor, which could lead to harsher winter weather conditions, sharply reduced soil moisture, and more intense winds in certain regions that currently provide a significant fraction of the world’s food production. With inadequate preparation, the result could be a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earth’s environment.

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?Why an “Ocean and Climate” platform

چکیده:

The ocean is a key element of the global climate system, but so far it has been relatively absent from discussions on climate change. For all of us participating in the Ocean and Climate Platform, it is essential to include the ocean among the issues and challenges discussed in the context of climate negociations.

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Climate Change and Conflict

چکیده:

Throughout the world we are witnessing the growing frequency of climatic anomalies such as flooding, storms, droughts or persistent forest and bush fires. They can have dramatic consequences for those affected, entailing loss of property and livelihood, famine and life threatening situations. Not least the floods in the Elbe river basin district in summer 2002, as well as those in the Russian Black Sea region, Bengal, southern China and south-east Asia, led many people to realize, even without definitive scientific proof, that there must be some truth in the theory of a man-made, measurable warming and that therefore climate protection must be given greater priority in future.

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BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014

چکیده:

The world of energy in 2013 echoed broader global  themes – such as emerging differences in global economic performance, geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing debates about the proper roles of government and markets. These are important issues, and ones over which opinions vary widely, and legitimately. It has been said that everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts. And that is where the Statistical Review comes in: since 1952, its mission has always been to provide objective, global data on energy markets to inform discussion, debate and decision-making. This first snap-shot of the global energy picture in 2013 – together with the historical data that puts today’s information into context – can help us to understand how the world around us is changing.
The year 2013 saw an acceleration in the growth of global energy consumption, despite a stagnant global economy. Economic growth remained weak nearly everywhere and relative to recent history it was weaker in the emerging non-OECD economies. In line with that economic pattern, energy consumption growth was below average in the non-OECD, driven by China, and above average in the mature economies of the OECD, driven by the US. Emerging economies nonetheless continue to dominate global energy demand, accounting for 80% of growth last year and nearly 100% of growth over the past decade.

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Climate change and indigenous peoples

چکیده:

Indigenous peoples are among the first to face the direct consequences of climate change, owing to their dependence upon, and close relationship with the environment and its resources. Climate change exacerbates the difficulties already faced by vulnerable indigenous communities, including political and economic marginalization, loss of land and resources, human rights violations, discrimination and unemployment.

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مطالعه شاخص هاي هواشناسي ايران در شرايط تغيير اقليم

چکیده:

فزايش دماي جهان اثرات عميقي را بر پديده هاي اقليمي و در راس آن ها ميزان والگوهاي بارندگي در سراسر جهان خواهد داشـت . از اين رو هدف از اين تحقيق پيش بيني پارامترهاي هواشناسي كشور در شرايط تغيير اقليم و مقايسه اين پارامترها با شرايط فعلي است . به اين منظور مدل گردش عمومي UKMO براي سالهاي 2025 و 2050 ميلادي بكار گرفته شد. با اجراي مدل گـردش عمـومي مقـادير ماهانـه درجـه حرارت حداقل، حداكثر و نزولات ماهانه براي ايستگاه هاي مختلف محاسبه (كه پوشش كاملي از نقاط مختف اقليمي ايران را فراهم سـاخته و معرف وضعيت عمومي كشور باشند) و اثرات تغيير اقليم براساس سناريوي تعريف شده در مدل براين پارامترهـاي اقليمـي تعيـين گرد يـد .
نتايج حاصل از اين تحقيق نشان ميدهد كه متوسط افزايش دماي فصل بهار براي سالهاي 2025 و 2050 در كل ايستگاههاي مطالعه شـده به ترتيب 1/3 9/3 و ، براي ماههاي فصل تابستان به ترتيب 8/3 7/4 و براي فصل پائيز 3/2 0/3 و و براي فصل زمستان 0/2 4/2 و درجـه سانتي گراد مي باشد. علاوه بر اين ميزان افزايش دما از شمال به جنوب و از غرب به شرق تشديد خواهد شد . براساس نتـايج بدسـت آمـده شدت كاهش بارندگي در مناطق خشك و نيمه خشك كشور بارزتر از مناطق مرطوب بوده وكاهش بارندگي در پائيز و زمستان بيشتر از بهار و تابستان خواهد بود. براساس پيش بيني هاي بدست آمده متوسط كاهش بارندگي پاييزه براي تمام ايستگاههاي تحت بررسـي در سـالهاي 2025 و 2050 ميلادي به ترتيب 8 و 11 درصد، و براي ماههاي فصل تابستان تقريبا ناچيز مي باشد. همچنين الگوي مكاني تغييرات بارش در سالهاي 2025 و 2050 ميلادي تا حد زيادي مشابه الگوي تغييرات درجه حرارت مي باشد . از طرف ديگر شرايط اقليمي پيش بيني شـده بوسيله مدل گردش عمومي نشاندهنده طولاني تر شدن فصل خشكي در سالهاي 2025 و 2050 در تمامي ايستگاههاي تحت بررسـي مـي باشد. بطوريكه ميانگين طول دوره خشك در سالهاي 2025 و 2050 ميلادي به ترتيب به 214 و 223 روز افزايش خواهد يافت.

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The economic impact of climate change

چکیده:

I review the literature on the economic impacts of climate change, an externality that is unprecedentedly large, complex, and uncertain. Only 14 estimates of the total damage cost of climate change have been published, a research effort that is in sharp contrast to the urgency of the public debate and the proposed expenditure on greenhouse gas emission reduction. These estimates show that climate change initially improves economic welfare. However, these benefits are sunk. Impacts would be predominantly negative later in the century. Global average impacts would be comparable to the welfare loss of a few percent of income, but substantially higher in poor countries. There are over 200 estimates of the marginal damage cost of carbon dioxide emissions. The uncertainty about the social cost of carbon is large and right skewed. For a standard discount rate, the expected value $50/tC, which is much lower than the price of carbon in the European Union but much higher than the price of carbon elsewhere. Current estimates of the damage costs of climate change are incomplete, with positive and negative biases. Most important among the missing impacts are the indirect effects of climate change on economic development, large scale biodiversity loss, low probability – high impact scenarios, the impact of climate change on violent conflict, and the impacts of climate change beyond 2100. From a welfare perspective, the impact of climate change is problematic because population is endogenous, and because policy analyses should separate impatience, risk aversion, and inequity aversion between and within countries.

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

چکیده:

The risks posed by climate change are real and its impacts are already taking place. The UN estimates that all but one of its emergency appeals for humanitarian aid in 2007 were climate related. In 2007 the UN Security Council held its first debate on climate change and its implications for international security. The European Council has drawn attention to the impact of climate change on international security and in June 2007 invited the High Representative and the European Commission to present a joint report to the European Council in Spring 2008.
The science of climate change is now better understood. The findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change demonstrate that even if by 2050 emissions would be reduced to below half of 1990 levels, a temperature rise of up to 2ºC above pre-industrial levels will be difficult to avoid. Such a temperature increase will pose serious security risks that would increase if warming continues. Unmitigated climate change beyond 2ºC will lead to unprecedented security scenarios as it is likely to trigger a number of tipping points that would lead to further accelerated, irreversible and largely unpredictable climate changes. Investment in mitigation to avoid such scenarios, as well as ways to adapt to the unavoidable should go hand in hand with addressing the international security threats created by climate change; both should be viewed as part of preventive security policy.

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THE POTENTIAL TO NARROW UNCERTAINTY IN REGIONAL CLIMATE PREDICTIONS

چکیده:

Faced with the realities of a changing climate, decision makers in a wide variety of organizations are increasingly seeking quantitative climate predictions. Specifically, they require predictions of the regional and local changes in climate that will impact people, economies, and ecosystems. Such predictions are available (e.g., Solomon et al. 2007) but are subject to considerable uncertainty. Thus, an important issue for these decision makers, and for organizations that fund climate research, is as follows: what is the scope for narrowing the uncertainty through future investments in climate science? Here, we address this question through analysis of twenty-first-century surface air temperature predictions (shown in Fig. 1) in the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel dataset, as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4; Solomon et al. 2007). This analysis is subject to some caveats, which we acknowledge and discuss.

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