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تحليل وضعيت بحران آب در كشور و الزامات مديريت آن

چکیده:

در اين مطالعه، با بررسي شاخص هاي بين المللي آب و چشم انداز بحران آب در جهان در افق سال 2050 ميلادي تلاش كرده ايم تـا ابعاد بحران آب در كشور از منظر عرضه و تقاضا را بررسي نموده و با ارائه آمار و ارقام تطبيقي، توجه سياسـتگذاران بـه اهميـت مديريت منابع آب در كشور، در دو بخش عرضه و تقاضا را جلب نماييم. يافته هاي اين پژوهش نشان ميدهد در شرايطي كه بخش كشاورزي بيش از 90 درصد از مصرف آب در كشور را به خود اختصاص ميدهد، به واسطه مشكلات ساختاري حاكم بر اين بخـش، روند رو به رشد جمعيت و مصرف مواد غذايي و به رغم فشار گسترده به منابع آبهاي زيرزميني كشور، كسري تراز بازرگاني ايـن بخش به بيش از 8 ميليارد دلار در سال 1392 رسيده است. بر اساس نتايج اين مطالعه، ايران در حال حاضر در وضـعيت “بحـران شديد” آب قرار داشته و با توجه به ثابت بودن منابع آبي، افزايش جمعيت و عدم توجه كافي به مديريت منـابع آب – در صـورت اتخاذ نشدن سياست هاي مناسب و به هنگام مديريت منابع آب در هر دو بعد عرضه و تقاضا- تشديد شرايط نامطلوب منابع آبـي كشور و تأثيرپذيري شاخص هاي امنيتي و اقتصادي امري اجتناب ناپذير خواهد بود. بدين روي، بهبود مديريت تقاضاي آب به ويـژه در بخش كشاورزي از طريق رعايت الگوي كشت بهينه ملي – منطقه اي، توجه بيشتر به شاخص “آب مجازي” در تبيـين الگـوي توليد و تجارت محصولات كشاورزي و نيز توجه به ارزش اقتصادي آب از جمله الزامات، براي مواجهه با بحران آب است كـه بايـد مورد توجه برنامه ريزان كشور قرار گيرد.

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The Greatest Threat Facing Iran: Running Out of Water

چکیده:

If Iran is in the news because of its nuclear program, the greatest threat to the country’s wellbeing isn’t economic sanctions or the Sunni­Shiite schism. Rather, the greatest threat to Iran may be that the country is running out of water. The problem is so severe that social unrest, economic dislocation, even out migration can all be imagined. One government advisor recently predicted that as many as fifty million Iranians—seventy percent of Iran’s population—may be forced to leave because of a lack of water.

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آینده‌پژوهی و سناریونگاری برای برنامه‌ریزی توسعه محله‌ای بر پایة تحلیل سیستمی با مطالعة محلة ِ سنگلج تهران

چکیده:

از آنجا که جامعة شهری سیستمی است پویا، پیچیده و دارای عدم قطعیت های بسیار، برنامه ریزی با رویکردی عقلانی  و بر پایة فرایندهای خطی برای آن دور از انتظار است. این پژوهش با تحلیل سیستمی و با تأکید صرفا بر ضرورت شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر سیستم، در پی شناخت و استخراج ساختارهای شکل دهندة سیستم ها برای برنامه ریزی توسعه در سطح محله ای است. از نظر روششناسی، پژوهش حاضر از نوع تحقیقات شناختی است. دادههای موردنیاز پژوهش شامل داده های کتابخانه ای و اسنادی و داده های مربوط به ادراک ساکنین و تصمیم سازان در امور مدیریت شهری است. با استفاده از روش تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و براساس ضریب اهمیت و همچنین عدم قطعیت آنها، همبستگی این عوامل با »توسعة محله« بررسی شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد، از میان سی عامل بررسی شده، چهار عامل بالاترین اثرگذاری و اثر پذیری را بر سیستم دارند: نقش و عملکرد فرامحلی محلة سنگلج و نبودن محرکِ‌ های نوسازی و فرسودگی بافت، عدم امنیت فضای محله و نبودن خدمات تفریحی و رفاهی مناسب جهت گذران اوقات فراغت ساکنان. این عوامل از محورهای اصلی شکل دهندة سناریوهای توسعة آتی محلة سنگلج محسوب میشوند. نگارندگان این مقاله معتقدند فرایند آینده پژوهی موردنظر در این پژوهش در مقایسه با فرایندهای کنونی برنامه ریزی استراتژیک، بر پایة ارائة آلترناتیوهای ذهنی و بدون درنظرداشتن زمینه ها و عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر ساختارهای هدایت کننده و اثرگذار بر محیط برنامه ریزی، درجة بالایی از واقعگرایی، پاسخگویی و انعطاف پذیری را دارد.

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Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change of the Farming Sector in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia

چکیده:

This paper analyzes vulnerability to climate change of the farming sector in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia across different agro-ecological zones. We construct composite vulnerability indices, which integrate both the bio-physical conditions of the farming regions and the socio-economic conditions of the farm households to investigate overall vulnerability as well as adaptive capacity, exposure and sensitivity. Concerning overall vulnerability, findings show that, among the four agro-ecological zones considered in this study, the humid lowlands and drought-prone highland areas of the Nile Basin of
Ethiopia are the most vulnerable zones. Findings also show that local farming systems where enset is the dominant crop in moisture-sufficient highland areas have the highest adaptive capacity, while the humid lowland zone is the lowest in terms of adaptive capacity to climate change. Regarding exposure and sensitivity, the drought-prone highland areas are the most exposed and most sensitive to climate change. The moisture-sufficient highland areas tend to be the least exposed and sensitive zones, even though population density is highest and the precipitation amount is declining over time. Findings imply that climate change adaptation should be placed within the broader context of development strategy and rural poverty reduction.

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MAPPING CLIMATE CHANGE EXPOSURES, VULNERABILITIES, AND ADAPTATION TO PUBLIC HEALTH RISKS IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND FRESNO REGIONS

چکیده:

This study reviewed first available frameworks for climate change adaptation in the public health arena. The authors propose a conceptual framework with a three‐step procedure to assess climate change vulnerabilities.
First, the study team identified and modeled heat stress, environmental, social, and health factors that are closely related to climate change and vulnerability. Second, the team quantified  the cumulative impacts of four high‐priority factors at regional level using the cumulative environmental hazard inequality index. Third, the team applied the environmental justice screening tool to map the four high‐priority factors to identify areas with increased vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change.
In addition to the heat stress estimated using air monitoring data, the team applied satellite data to create models of the land surface temperature at 30‐meter resolution and provided a measure of small‐scale variations in the urban heat island.

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Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios

چکیده:

Climate change is a defining challenge of our time and it is one of the most pressing threats to development action is not taken to slow down and reverse the increase of greenhouse gas emissions, changes in our climate could have catastrophic consequences for the entire planet. Under these circumstances, the poorest and most vulnerable populations of the world would endure the harshest impacts and suffer disproportionately from the negative effects of climatic changes.
Addressing the possible impacts of climate change is entirely compatible with pursuing development. In fact, it is critical to achieving the Millennium Development Goals. Our experience at UNDP over the past two decades indicates that the right mix of policies, skills, and incentives can influence behaviour and encourage investments in climate-friendly activities. To achieve this, UNDP enhances the capacity of developing countries to formulate, finance and implement national and sub-national low-emission, climateresilient plans that align climate management efforts with development goals, and promote synergies between development and climate finance.

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Climate change, drought and desertification

چکیده:

The definition of desertification accepted in the ad hoc conference held by UNEP in Nairobi in 1977 and confirmed at the Earth Summit on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 is: ‘arid, semiarid and dry-subhumid land degradation’. There is no global long-term trend in any rainfall change over the period of instrumental record (c. 150 years), but there has been an increase of 0·5°C in global temperature over the past 100 years. This increase seems partly due to urbanization, as there is no evidence of it resulting from atmospheric pollution by CO2 and other warming gases (SO2, NO2, CH4, CFH etc.). On the other hand, the thermal increase is uneven, increasing with latitudes above 40° N and S. The increase is only slight or non-existent in subtropical and inter-tropical latitudes where most arid and semi-arid lands lie. This, incidently, is consistent with Global Circulation Models (GCM) — derived scenarios. The study of tree-rings, lake level fluctuations and pollen analysis confirm the existence of climatic fluctuations, but with no long-term trends over the past 2000 years.

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LEARNING ABOUT ADAPTATION POSSIBILITIES BY TALKING TO KENYAN FEMALE AND MALE FARMERS SEPARATELY

چکیده:

Kenya and elsewhere, male and female farmers have different roles and responsibilities on the farm. What this means in terms of how they will adapt their farming practices in the face of a changing climate, and what governments, development agencies, NGOs, and researchers can do to facilitate this, is not so well known. We set out to explore gender differences in how men and women perceive climate change and its impacts, and the ways they are responding to these changes by interviewing a woman and man in 400 Kenyan rural farming households. We asked the same set of questions of the men and women, and found interesting similarities and differences in their answers.

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Quantitative and monetary benefit assessments – Assessing improved water resource use and its adaptation to climate change

چکیده:

This paper illustrates one aspect of the ongoing project “Analysis for the European Neighbourhood Policy Instrument (ENPI) Countries on social and economic benefits of enhanced environmental protection” which is funded by the EU through EuropeAid. The study assesses the potential qualitative, quantitative and monetary benefits of enhanced environmental protection as a result of the convergence of ENP countries‟ environmental policies and legislation with those of the EU.
The study has been initiated as key international financial institutions (IBRD, EIB) as well as officials in Ministries of Environment in ENP countries have signalled that they had difficulties in concretely demonstrating the importance of environmental actions to their governments, which frequently resulted in barriers to progress. This study covers the following ENP countries in the MENA region: Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestinian Authority, Syria and Tunisia.

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